Grain Outlook

Dec 16, 2021
Corn has been in a range recently and seems comfortable in that range for the moment.  Some of our domestic demand is back from last year as we have recently seen the Ethanol Industry with good demand for corn. If that continues it would appear USDA will need to adjust the demand number upward for that sector.  What we don’t know about yet is exports, and that demand showed up early last year and has not shown up yet. We have seen China avoid the US for its commodity needs in the past for a variety of reasons and it appears it could be doing that again.  It appears that Ukraine could be a much larger source of China’s need for corn this year.  Traders see a fair amount of corn moving from there currently. We are seeing Canada seeking much more corn from the US this year as they work thru the drought they experienced last season.  The market is focused on the southern hemisphere weather at the moment and that will likely be the main driver of this market until spring arrives and we see how fertilizer costs and weather affect our spring plantings.  If the southern hemisphere has a good crop it likely will cap our market.  Stay tuned as the story continues.
Soybeans have missed some opportunity this year as the gulf export houses suffered severe damage from a major storm.  The capacity is all nearly back online now, but we are a month or so from seeing some competition from the southern hemisphere to our usual targets. Domestic demand has been robust with the crushing industry enjoying some very good margins. The USDA is indicating that we are building stocks and the market seems to be indicating the same at the moment.  The price direction will be focused on what is raised in South America for the near term.  The long term outlook for soybeans appears to be bright, as the SAF(Sustainable Avaiation Fuel) and Renewable Diesel will be needed to curb carbon emissions.

Al Jentz

Vice President - Grain


David Cramer

Filed Under: CornGrainSoybeans